Pai Gow Poker EV, Commission & Push Calculator
Compare standard commission vs no-commission rules, model expected loss over multiple hands, understand push frequency, and see why side bets are expensive. For education, not a solver.
Standard Commission (5%)
Commission vs No-Commission
Side-by-side expected loss comparison on $2,500.00 of action.
The difference between commission and no-commission is small. Neither format offers positive expected value.
Expected Loss Benchmarks
Low volatility — ~41% of hands push and return your bet.
Low volatility — ~41% of hands push and return your bet.
Low volatility — ~41% of hands push and return your bet.
Outcome Scenarios
How the two-hand comparison resolves into win, loss, or push.
Player wins both hands
WinThe player beats the banker's high hand and low hand. The player wins even money minus commission.
Player loses both hands
LoseThe banker beats the player on both hands. The player loses the entire bet.
Split: player wins high, loses low
PushEach side wins one hand. The result is a push and the bet is returned.
Split: player wins low, loses high
PushSame as above — one win and one loss equals a push regardless of which hand wins.
Exact copy (tie goes to banker)
LoseIf both the player and banker have the same hand, the banker wins. This is a small but meaningful edge source.
Side Bet Warning
Side bets carry much higher house edges than the base game.
Pays on the quality of your seven-card hand regardless of how you set it. The house edge is much higher than the base game.
Often carries a very high house edge. The jackpot contribution is typically small relative to the side bet cost.
Pays when you receive a hand with no pair or better (a Pai Gow hand). The edge is still substantially higher than the base game.
Pays when the dealer's hand qualifies for bonus payouts. The player has no strategic influence over dealer cards.
Hand-Setting Examples
Fixed educational examples — not outputs from an optimal solver.
Splitting the aces gives the low hand a strong anchor while keeping a powerful high hand.
Keeping both aces in the high hand leaves the low hand very weak.
Splitting the two pair gives the low hand a strong K-Q while the high hand still holds a pair of kings.
Keeping both pairs in the high hand wastes strength that the low hand needs.
The straight is too strong to break. Accept the weak low hand because the high hand will almost certainly win.
Breaking the straight to strengthen the low hand usually loses more than it gains.
Splitting one jack to the low hand gives it a face card while the high hand retains a pair of jacks.
Keeping three jacks in the high hand leaves the low hand hopeless against most banker hands.
Why commission and copy rules create the edge.
The formula behind every expected loss result.
Higher volatility, lower edge with basic strategy.
Responsible Gaming
This content is for educational purposes only. Gambling involves real financial risk and can be addictive. The house always has a mathematical advantage—there is no guaranteed winning strategy.